Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
